It is a new year but we are back to the same old conflicts. Ukraine is now in the crosshairs of Vladimir Putin who seeks to finish the job he started in 2014 and realign Ukraine with the Russian **Empire**. At this point, geopolitics feels like a game of chicken, each country testing who blinks first. In early 2021, Russia assembled over 100,000 troops along Ukrainian borders to test its mobilization ability in the case of a full-scale invasion. While diplomatic pressure from the Biden administration resolved that military buildup, Russia has now staged a repeat of that but with more sinister intentions.
The formation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was solely to counter the Soviet Union, and now Russia. The end of the Cold War heralded a new West-aligned world order and many Soviet bloc nations in East Europe became staunch allies of the West. The 2014 invasion and occupation of Crimea was staged to deter Ukraine’s burgeoning diplomatic and military pacts with the West after its pro-Russia leader was ousted by popular protests. Ukraine has received over $1.4 billion in military assistance from the United States since 2014 and it seeks to join NATO to protect itself against Russian aggression. While NATO membership is unlikely, Ukraine is a major ally of the West and Putin sees these strengthening relations as proof that Russian existence is threatened by the West. As of now, over 100,000 Russian troops are assembled at Ukraine’s borders, ready to invade at a moment’s notice.
Current Situation
In October 2021, the US Intelligence Community raised the alarm that Putin intended to invade Ukraine. This was followed by dozens of calls between US and Russian officials and 3 phone calls between Biden and Putin to defuse tensions. These conversations resulted in multiple rounds of negotiations which started off today. In December, Russia published a proposal for two agreements with the United States and NATO that would roll back Western military activity in Ukraine and elsewhere in Eastern Europe, in essence re-establishing a sphere of Russian influence in what used to be parts of the Soviet Union.
In the first round of negotiations today, US and Russian officials spoke for over 8 hours in which the US made clear that many of the proposals are nonstarters for Western Officials, who insist that countries should be free to decide their own bilateral relations and NATO’s open-door policy is critical to its existence. While Russian officials insist that invasion is not in the books, their threats and actions prove otherwise. At the same time, the US has responded with its own threats. In 2014, the Obama administration intended to impose a sanctions regime that would scare Putin from ever attempting an invasion of Eastern European nations. Clearly, those sanctions failed as Russia adapted ways to circumvent them. The Biden administration has heeded the lesson and US officials, in an unprecedented way, released a list of sanctions that Russia would face within hours of aggression against Ukraine. These sanctions included cutting off Russia’s largest financial institutions from the SWIFT network, banning export of any consumer goods with US technology or parts, included those sold by other countries, and freezing bank accounts of the oligarchs close to Putin. These sanctions would impose real pain on the Russian economy and make Putin pay a heavy price for any aggression. The only caveat is the failure of Western European nations to coordinate effectively with the US. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom seem willing to impose sanctions on paper but have refrained from real committments, fearing that Putin will cut off natural gas exports during the winter. If European nations stand up to Russia, it seems a sure fact that Putin will have to stand off from his position.
Geopolitical Implications:
The geopolitical implications of these tensions between two nuclear powers are massive. But beyond the omnipresent threat of nuclear conflict, the ground reality for the Ukrainian people is the major concern. Any Russian invasion would be met with stiff Ukrainian resistance. While its army would fail to withstand a full scale invasion, Gen. Mark Milley - Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - has already promised military assistance for any Ukrainian resistance movement, essentially creating a repeat of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s and the Western arming of the Mujahideen. While any conflict would create seismic shifts in global foreign policy and military orientations, hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives will be lost because of Vladimir Putin’s need for power. It is pretty obvious that the only reason Putin is suddenly worried about Russian security is that Russia has one of the highest death rates from Covid-19 in the world and the government’s terrible response to the pandemic is highly unpopular. Despots will go to every length to maintain power. And the best way to maintain it? Create an emergency. Works every time. Hypernationalism tends to erase political differences and unites people in support of a nation’s government. Sanctions from the west would stoke hypernationalism and play right into Putin’s hands unless they are so strong that he has no choice but to back off.
A united NATO remains the best way to ensure prosperity and diplomacy in Europe. “Peace through strength” has become unpopular under progressive foreign policy but it remains the only way to tame despots and maintain the global world order.
For more information and latest updates, follow the NY Times page at Russia-Ukraine Tensions dashboard.
Amazing work, extremely insightful!
Very informative !