The Graveyard of Empires buries yet one more
A look at Afghanistan as the US finishes its withdrawal
A Brief History
Afghanistan has always been a hotly contested region in Asia by the imperial powers of Europe. The British army had always tried to establish their supremacy in Afghanistan but to no avail. Even though Afghanistan was very close to the Axis powers, it remained neutral in World War II and the cold war. Afghanistan remained a monarchy for quite a long and the monarchy was finally abolished in 1973 and a democratic government was established in Afghanistan.
Based on the general nature of democracy, several people were not happy with the democratic government established in Afghanistan. In 1978 the communist People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan launched a Saur Revolution against the then president Muhammad Daoud Khan. This was the first of many actions that would gradually trigger a series of events, which would turn Afghanistan from being poor and secluded to a hotbed of terrorism in Asia. The PDPA declared the establishment of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan with the first leader as Nur Muhammad Taraki. They were a very hostile and oppressive regime dedicated to the suppression of freedom of speech. This, again, did not hold well among many people. A civil war started in Afghanistan with Maoist guerillas called Mujahideen. The civil war between the government and the Mujahideen gradually led to a large-scale proxy war. In an effort to fight against Communism, Pakistan and the United States funded the rebels whereas the soviets funded the PDPA, and thus, a proxy war started. In 1979, then General Secretary Taraki was killed and Hafizullah Amin became the leader of the PDPA. The Soviets were not happy with this new leader and they invaded the country, toppled Amin, and established a Soviet-organised regime led by Barbara Karmal.
The United States, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and China kept funding the rebels to keep fighting against extreme Soviet influence in the region. This continued over a period of nine years where between 562,000- 2 million people died and over 6 million people were displaced. After the fall of Gorbachev's USSR in 1992, the Soviet Army left Afghanistan but by then several political factions had already started in the country. Between the year 1992 to 2001 several wars broke out between several Mujahideen factions. There was no reconciliation whatsoever between these parts and the governments that were established were weak and did not have majority support in the country. In response to a weak and inefficient government, in 1994 a movement and militia of students started from madrassas in Pakistan. They became known as the Taliban. They took control of Kandahar and drove Rabani out of Kabul in 1996. By the time the Taliban reached Kabul, Kabul had already been destroyed after years of civil war in the region. The Taliban established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which was recognized by just three countries. Afghanistan was now a battle between an internationally recognized terrorist group and numerous government factions all around the country. No side of the Afghan war enjoyed legitimacy.
Even today, the government fights for legitimacy while several factions of the Taliban control rural regions and several districts in Afghanistan. The changing power dynamics in the country have made it very difficult for anyone to actually map out what the current situation is like, because every now and then the government takes a part of the land from the Taliban and vice versa happens, giving rise to a constant struggle between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
US War on Terrorism in Afghanistan
As a terrorist militia group, the Taliban found a friend in Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda enjoyed Taliban protection and supported the regime in Afghanistan. It was well-known among military and journalistic circles back then that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Afghanistan and managing his network from there. The west gradually began calling Afghanistan the world's first terrorist-sponsored state. After 9/11, the United States wanted Osama in their hands- the Taliban refused because Osama was their guest. In response, the United States and the United Kingdom bombed Al Qaeda training camps and, working with the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, overthrew the Taliban government, essentially triggering an invasion of the state of Afghanistan. A world opinion poll was conducted then and it showed that a majority of Afghans did support the American invasion of the country and hated the Taliban government. With the help of foreign forces, an Afghan Interim administration was formed under Hamid Karzai. The United Nations Security Council provided basic security and assistance to Karzai and gave him full protection from the Taliban whereas NATO supported the formation of an Internal Security Assistance Force- ISAF in the same region.
The Taliban however was not dead. They still controlled several districts and rural areas in Afghanistan and had regrouped inside Pakistan. Currently, they are leading an insurgency against the Afghan government. The current insurgency relies on opium production revenues to keep the process going, Afghanistan now produces 93% of the world's opium. A London School of Economics report also claims that the most concrete evidence supports the fact that Pakistan’s ISI is funding the training and giving sanctuary to the Taliban. Pakistani military vehemently denies all claims. However, there has been a lot of foreign aid pouring into Afghanistan, NATO support, and ISAF training of the Afghan national security forces. The result was that Afghanistan had its first democratically conducted election in the year 2014 and in the same year, NATO completely transferred all military responsibility to the government, ending ISAF operations and leaving a few thousand NATO troops in the region to train and advise the Afghan forces.
What the future holds for Afghanistan
On the 14th of April, the President of the United States Joe Biden announced that all troops of the United States will be leaving Afghanistan by the historic and symbolic date of September 11th, 2021. The US withdrawal started as early as 1st May and several important regions have already been vacated of US troops such as the Bagram airport which was seen as the central military checkpoint for US troops.
While this act is the end of one of the longest wars the United States has engaged in, it cannot in any way farewell for the civilians in Afghanistan. As the US gradually began pulling its troops off Afghan land, the Taliban started regaining control in the region. As ABC news projects, the Taliban currently controls 5 of 6 districts in the Uruzgan regions whereas the central provincial district with the capital is controlled by the government. Over the years, the Taliban has had districts throughout the country but not one of the provincial capitals has ever fallen into their hands. All of the capitals were controlled by the government and the government, supported by several international military agencies, maintained its control over districts in Afghanistan. The situation worsened when the troops left the region. For instance, the Business Insider reports that within hours of US withdrawal from the Bagram airport, Afghan looters rolled into the region, stealing laptops, gas canisters, etc from the airport. While the Afghans blame this on the lack of cooperation from the US side, the US military refuted all claims and stated that there was complete cooperation with the Afghans on the US side. Given the situation in Afghanistan, General Austin Miller, who is the top US command in Afghanistan, said, “ A civil war is certainly a path that can be visualised if this continues on the trajectory it's on right now, that should be of concern to the world.”
The impact of the civil war on people has been horrendous. The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that almost 90,000 people were displaced in Afghanistan since the start of this year and since 2012, in a population of 38 million people, almost 4.8 million people were displaced, all of this because of the targeted killings of journalists, activists, common people and any dissenters by the Taliban.
Pentagon leaders report that there is a “medium” risk that the government in security forces will collapse in the face of the Taliban and with all combat Troops and war material gone from the region, the only remaining power the US has included the following:
Firstly, the head of US Central Command General Frank Mackenzie will still have authority till September 11th to defend Afghan forces against the Taliban and he will be able to directly speak and advise the Afghan troops in the region; the US will no longer train/ advise Afghan forces, 650 troops will remain to protect the US Embassy in Afghanistan and could potentially help secure the Kabul Airport as well.
Secondly, the US retains the authority to conduct counterterrorism strikes if they threaten the homeland at any point. Even though the troops are leaving the region, the US still has a lot of authority in Afghanistan to help fight terrorism in the region.
The Taliban version of the blitzkrieg which started almost as soon as troops were withdrawn from the region is being seen with horror and shock by the west. Because of the lack of security, there is almost no avenue for journalists and other media observers in Afghanistan, therefore mapping the current situation in Afghanistan tends to be quite difficult. But when ABC conducted a survey of a few regions in Afghanistan they discovered that since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan the Taliban had annexed almost 40 districts in a period of 45 days which is said to be almost 10% of the total land area in Afghanistan. The government accepted some of these annexures but they rejected most of them. As of 2018, the government-controlled only 54 % of the total land in Afghanistan, 34% was contested and the remaining 12% was under the Taliban. Recently, with dwindling international military power, the government is gradually becoming weaker. It is only partially correct to assume that the Afghan national army is not well equipped to handle the Taliban because year after year, several international military organizations have helped the Afghan National Army to train themselves to fight against the Taliban.
The government's rejection of the excessive control of the Taliban in the region is often an example of misplaced confidence and a means of boosting people's morale because in reality the current condition is very unpredictable but the tide is favoring the Taliban. An Afghan political analyst Irfan Yar explains the reason behind the government’s statements, “ It is mainly just to keep the people's trust for the reality on the ground is favouring the Taliban specifically in these days.” Even the United States Congressional Research Service published a paper wherein they explained that by many measures, the Taliban are in a stronger military position today than they were at any point since 2001 though many public metrics related to the conduct of the war had been classified or are no longer produced.
The only way out of this, the Observer Research Foundation explains, is that the government must find different ways of boosting the morale of members of the Afghan National Army, and if they are unable to do so and sweep over the entire country as they did in the 90s, Afghanistan will be headed towards an Apocalypse. The people who are suffering already owing to several years of political and economic instability will be heading towards more pain, frustration, and conflict.
Very well composed !
Very informative !